Overview

• Partial market price increases observed with some mills raising offers

• Seasonal demand remains weak; downstream resistance to price hikes

• Tube billet costs rose significantly, strengthening cost support

• Mill raw material inventories declined noticeably

• Traders maintain stable quotes, but rising costs may push prices upward

Weekly Review

Price Performance

National seamless pipe average: 4,267 RMB/ton (as of July 18)

• Up 3 RMB/t WoW with regional variations

• Shandong billet prices rose 30 RMB/t; Jiangsu prices stable

• 34 sampled mills raised prices by 20-50 RMB/t

Profit Analysis

• Shandong billet-rolling mills returned to profit at 40 RMB/t (up 40 WoW)

Regional Spotlight (East China)

• Shandong mills lifted prices following billet increases

• Regional prices stable but transactions muted

• Mill production and inventories both declined

• Social inventories edged up slightly

• Outlook: Firm price trend expected

Next Week Forecast

Inventory Status

• Social inventories: 682.5k tons (up 5.2k tons WoW)

• Mill inventories: 700.1k tons (down 12.2k tons WoW)

• Raw material stocks at mills: 280.2k tons (down 0.4k tons WoW)