Market Overview

• Prices rose significantly amid raw material cost surges

• Mills hiked offers but traders resisted full price pass-through

• Seasonal demand remains subdued despite improved sentiment

• Production dipped due to maintenance schedules

• Outlook: Prices expected to stabilize despite cost pressures

Weekly Review

Price Movements

• National average: 4,331 RMB/ton (as of July 25)

• +64 RMB/t WoW—largest weekly gain in months

• Raw materials surged: Shandong billets +120 RMB/t WoW

• 34 sampled mills raised prices 50-100 RMB/

       

Profit Recovery

• Shandong billet-rolling mills: 90 RMB/t profit

• +50 RMB/t WoW - second consecutive week of improvement

East China Spotlight

• Regional prices rose 40-60 RMB/t following mill hikes

• Mill production declined while costs increased

• Improved trader sentiment observed

       

Next Week Outlook

Inventory Status

• Social inventories: 685.4k tons (+2.9k tons WoW)

• Mill inventories: 682.4k tons (-17.7k tons WoW)

• Raw material stocks at mills: 286k tons (+5.8k tons WoW)

Supply Constraints

• Weekly output: 331.4k tons (-13.4k tons WoW)

• Capacity utilization: 72.01% (down 2.91% WoW)

• Seasonal maintenance reduced production

       

Market Forecast

• Downstream resistance persists despite cost increases

• Traders' low-cost inventories nearly depleted

• Actual demand improvement remains limited

• Price trajectory: Largely stable nationwide