Overview U.S. tariff suspensions triggered an export frenzy, but Southeast Asia’s trade barriers and summer demand slams threaten profits. With mills hiking output despite shrinking consumption, July steel prices face decisive pressure.

1. Tariff Policy: Race Against Time

• 90-day tariff pause fueled a 53.5% surge in rod/wire exports, while billet shipments nearly tripled.

• July 31 deadline: New 70% tariffs activate August 1 if talks fail (60% probability per insiders).

• Hidden cost: Vietnam re-routing adds $20/ton expenses, while Taiwan’s 20% anti-dumping tax slashes margins.

2. Export Barriers: Southeast Asia Blockade

• Certification trap: Steel rejected without EU certificates forces costly detours via third regions.

• Africa breakthrough: Exports to AU-55 nations jumped 30% yearly, led by Nigeria and Tanzania.

• Trade war damage: Korean anti-dumping probes cut hot-rolled coil exports by over 30%.

3. Seasonal Demand Collapse

• Construction freeze: 40°C heatwaves cut site operations 30%, crushing rebar demand to 219k tons – a 24% drop from peaks.

• Industrial bright spot: Auto sector lifts cold-rolled demand 6.9%, but overall consumption gap hits 700k tons.

• Inventory crisis: Traders hold stocks at 688.9k tons (3-year low) while mill inventories mask overproduction risks.

4. Supply Gamble: High-Risk Output Hike

• Overproduction alert: Crude steel output surged 6.4% in late June despite losses.

• Profit divide: Large mills cling to 238 yuan/ton margins while small processors bleed 50 yuan/ton losses.

• Policy wildcard: Tangshan’s rumored July 15-30 output cuts may reduce daily supply by 61k tons.

July Forecast: Critical Crossroads

"Tariff chaos, export traps, and demand collapse converge – prices face August freefall before potential Q4 rebound. Oil/gas exports and stimulus timing hold recovery keys."